from Simon Rosenburg of the Hopium Chronicles
Summary of some really good news from Democratic strategist - and amazingly accurate election prognosticator - Simon Rosenberg:
The DailyKos special election tracker has Democrats outperforming 2020 results by 7.6 points over 25 races across the US this year.
A recent 538 analysis found in a broader set of elections Democrats were outperforming the partisan lean of the district by 10 points. Today 538 published an update, Democrats have been winning big in special elections: that could bode well for them in the 2024 election. It includes this passage: “It’s also the latest example of Democrats outperforming in a special election, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for Democrats in 2024. This New Hampshire district is 6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2020 and 2016 presidential results in the district.* Yet Rafter won by 12 points — an 18-point Democratic overperformance above their partisan baseline.”
This year Democrats also flipped the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, winning by 11 points and getting all the way to 56%: we flipped 2 Republican leaning cities, Jacksonville and Colorado Springs; and we won the August Ohio ballot initiative 57-41. In 2022 we got to 59% in CO, 57% in PA, 55% in MI and 54% in NH. We keep performing at the upper end of what’s possible.
On Twitter today prominent GOP strategist Chris Wilson, sharing the NH results, wrote: “Precursor to what would occur should Trump be the GOP nominee. Republicans will be wiped out in 2024.”
Read the full essay HERE
Notes from the author of thos blog:
Public opinion is definitely with the policies and candidates of the Democratic Party.
Wisconsin voters elected a Democrat as Chief Justice of the state supreme court by an 11-point margin, giving Democrats a majority on the court,
Ohio voters are expected to widely approve a measure to encode reproductive rights in the state constitution and soundly defeted a measure in an August election that would have increased the vote majority needed for such actions from 50% plus 1 to 60%
So far this year the Democratic Party has outraised its GOP counterpart in camapign cash by over 60%
We flipped 2 Republican leaning cities, Jacksonville and Colorado Springs;
A special election in New Hampsjre saw a lomg-held red seat turned blue, in a district that Trump won in 2020
Poll after poll show broad public agreement with Democratic policies on reproductive rights, gun control, infrastructure investment, and the social safety net.
We have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections, the most ever ever for any party