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Democrats Just Keep Winning, Biden Administration Engages Young Americans

from Simon Rosenburg of the Hopium Chronicles

Summary of some really good news from Democratic strategist - and amazingly accurate election prognosticator - Simon Rosenberg:

  • The DailyKos special election tracker has Democrats outperforming 2020 results by 7.6 points over 25 races across the US this year.

  • A recent 538 analysis found in a broader set of elections Democrats were outperforming the partisan lean of the district by 10 points. Today 538 published an update, Democrats have been winning big in special elections: that could bode well for them in the 2024 election. It includes this passage: “It’s also the latest example of Democrats outperforming in a special election, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for Democrats in 2024. This New Hampshire district is 6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2020 and 2016 presidential results in the district.* Yet Rafter won by 12 points — an 18-point Democratic overperformance above their partisan baseline.”

  • This year Democrats also flipped the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, winning by 11 points and getting all the way to 56%: we flipped 2 Republican leaning cities, Jacksonville and Colorado Springs; and we won the August Ohio ballot initiative 57-41. In 2022 we got to 59% in CO, 57% in PA, 55% in MI and 54% in NH. We keep performing at the upper end of what’s possible.

  • On Twitter today prominent GOP strategist Chris Wilson, sharing the NH results, wrote: “Precursor to what would occur should Trump be the GOP nominee. Republicans will be wiped out in 2024.”

Read the full essay HERE

Notes from the author of thos blog:

Public opinion is definitely with the policies and candidates of the Democratic Party.

  • Wisconsin voters elected a Democrat as Chief Justice of the state supreme court by an 11-point margin, giving Democrats a majority on the court,

  • Ohio voters are expected to widely approve a measure to encode reproductive rights in the state constitution and soundly defeted a measure in an August election that would have increased the vote majority needed for such actions from 50% plus 1 to 60%

  • So far this year the Democratic Party has outraised its GOP counterpart in camapign cash by over 60%

  • We flipped 2 Republican leaning cities, Jacksonville and Colorado Springs;

  • A special election in New Hampsjre saw a lomg-held red seat turned blue, in a district that Trump won in 2020

  • Poll after poll show broad public agreement with Democratic policies on reproductive rights, gun control, infrastructure investment, and the social safety net.

  • We have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections, the most ever ever for any party

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